AISD being negatively impacted by Austin's growth

10/7/2014

"We project that enrollment will remain flat or decline slightly in the next few years," Cruz said.... More than 60 percent of Austin students are economically disadvantaged, so it's easy to see why AISD is losing kids on the East side of town.

read more:

austin.twcnews.com/content/news/305311/aisd-facing-changing-communities/

see also:

kxan.com/2014/10/06/austin-isd-graduation-rates-up-enrollment-numbers-dip/

10 Comments

Tim

10/7/2014 10:38:45 am

No, AISD being negatively impacted by lack of growth. We need far more town homes, condos, and apartments. NIMBY's preventing more abundant housing from being built in the city are suppressing the number of children who can live in AISD's borders.

Mary Rudig

10/8/2014 01:27:26 am

Tim,

You have made many posts on ANC and sent me several emails insisting the only free market principle that applies to Austin housing is supply and demand.

It's a nice theory--but it doesn't work because there is a another principle that is already in play, "the seller will charge what the market will bear."

Let's take your insistence that easing land code will lead to more supply and cheaper housing.

Houston has no land code. The rents in Houston, however, have skyrocketed:

http://www.chron.com/homes/article/Houston-renters-getting-hit-with-some-of-the-5049162.php

Even in a city with code, it's still not about supply. Washington D.C. has plenty of supply, but affordable housing has become a huge problem:

www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/07/how-high-cost-housing-has-overtaken-dc-in-a-single-decade/

Seattle is another city facing soaring rents, even though they use a projected growth model and adjust their housing accordingly:

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2021673014_rentincreasesxml.html

This article shows how the formula works, how close they are to being on track, and why it is not working:

http://livableballard.org/density-debate/

As I've said before, prove me wrong. I have shown three examples where supply is sufficient, and two are cities that are very developer friendly. Now show me examples of cities where the supply has been increased and the cost of housing has dropped.

Mary R.
editor, North Austin Community Newsletter

Tim Thomas

10/8/2014 01:56:50 am

Intrinsically we all know this is true. Neighborhoods fight affordable housing and apartments in their neighborhoods. Why? Because they *lower property values*.

Thanks for bringing up Houston. It's incredibly affordable. The only places it's expensive are in a tiny number of incredibly desirable neighborhoods. Houston has hundreds and hundreds of properties available for sale, right now, within the 610 loop for less than $100k. Why is Houston so cheap? An abundant supply of houses.

Why are those desirable neighborhoods so expensive? It's because everyone in Houston wants to live in them, driving up the prices, and there are not enough houses to keep up with demand.

Why is Austin so desirable? Because the majority of people who live in Cedar Park, Leander, Manor, Kyle, and Buda would prefer to live in Austin. We are not building fast enough to keep up with this demand and so prices shoot through the roof.

If you have a theory as to *why* not building more housing would lead to more children living in Austin and cheaper housing prices I'm all ears.

Mary Rudig

10/8/2014 02:23:32 am

And once again, you sidestep my request for examples to prove your theory that supply will simply lower prices. In fact, one of the articles I gave you specifically shows why there is no empirical data to support your statement.

Also? I find it funny that you continue to paint me as anti-density and anti-growth.

My neighborhood sits, literally, on the back step of the Domain and the density along Metric. Even with the Walnut Creek Metro park, greenbelt space and the Marshall Ford Line, our density is still 4800, which is 1300/ per square mile higher than the average for Austin. The neighborhood sitting on our other flank averages 6500 per square mile. Its also one of the zipcodes that consistently ranks in the top 5 for growth in the city.

So, your insistence that I am anti-growth and anti-density doesn't work either.

-Mary R.
editor. North Austin Community Newsletter

Tim

10/8/2014 02:32:40 am

This isn't about you Mary. I've never painted you as anything. I am not the author of this article - http://www.austindistrict7.org/yes-i-am-a-nimby/

I'm simply stating the fact that we need more housing. I have explained that Houston has abundant housing and low property values. I've explained that pretty much everyone agrees that putting apartments/multifamily (aka supply) in neighborhoods lowers property values. I'm not side-stepping the articles you provided. Only one of them actually proves your point and I disagree with it. Seattle does not have a glut of housing.

From your Houston article:
"Researchers say things may get better as new construction projects are completed"

From your DC article:
"That picture captures the gulf between highly desirable Ward 2 and Ward 3 -- Northwest Washington -- and much of the rest of the city."

I am fighting for AISD which is why I bothered posting here. 25% of AISD students live in multifamily housing and that percentage is increasing. We need more abundant housing to save AISD schools.

Tim

10/8/2014 02:32:49 am

Mary Rudig

10/8/2014 04:14:01 am

Again, where are your examples? If increasing supply creates affordable housing as you keep stating, then surely you can give us some examples of cities where this has occured.

-Mary R.
editor, North Austin Community Newsletter

Tim

10/8/2014 04:22:07 am

Memphis, Louisville, Knoxville, Birmingham, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Dayton, Akron, Toledo, Columbus, Akron, Warren, Grand Rapids and Detroit.

Mary Rudig

10/8/2014 04:45:14 am

That's a very interesting list from someone who states they are concerned about AISD. Many of the cities you list are deeply segregated, have low high school graduation rates, and are struggling with crime and employment rates. And there's also a few, like Cincinnati, do currently have affordable housing, but are seeing sharp rises in the cost of housing.

-Mary R.
editor, North austin Community Newsleter

Tim

10/8/2014 04:48:02 am

I don't "say I'm concerned". I'm actively involved in helping to fix AISD. The urban school I'm involved with has nearly doubled enrollment.

Anyway, I've answered all your questions. You've provided zero solutions.

AISD being negatively impacted by Austin's growth

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